Real Estate Demographics
Exploring the intersection of housing markets and demographic trends across the United States — powered by data from the U.S. Census Bureau and machine learning.
US Overview
National-level data providing insight into real estate and demographic trends across various regions in America.
Home Affordability in 2022
The US housing market has been experiencing a significant affordability challenge in recent years, as home prices have risen faster than incomes and supply has lagged demand. Post COVID, the federal reserve increased the interest rate for inter-banking lending, resulting in higher mortgage rates. Existing homeowners locked into sub-5% rates have been reluctant to sell, further constraining inventory.
Key insight: A lower affordability ratio is better. A ratio of 3 means three years of income to pay for a home (generally affordable). Ratios of 5–6 indicate stress.
The graphs above show a nationwide trend of increased housing costs post-COVID. States like Idaho and Arizona saw significant jumps as the “work from home” shift drove white-collar workers from expensive coastal cities to more affordable states.
Median House Prices vs Median Household Income
By comparing median household prices across states, we can gauge relative affordability. High median prices may reflect a strong local economy, but when coupled with low incomes they signal economic inequality and a lack of affordable housing.
Key insight: Median prices alone don’t capture the full picture—cost of living, property taxes, and mortgage rates all matter.
Real Estate Tax Burden in 2022
High real estate taxes reduce housing affordability and contribute to a state’s overall cost of living, influencing decisions about where to live or do business.
Key insight: New Jersey’s highest-in-the-nation tax burden stems from accumulated debt and pension liabilities, despite recent migration from NYC for WFH affordability.
Median Mortgage Payment in 2022
A steady increase in median monthly mortgage payments can suggest a seller’s market where demand outpaces supply. For investors, lower median payments may indicate higher potential rental yields.
Houses with Mortgages in 2022
The total number of houses with mortgages indicates the size of each state’s real estate market. A larger count suggests a larger, more active market.
Average Household Size by Homeowner in 2022
Average household size signals what type and size of housing is in demand. Areas with larger households typically have higher demand for multi-bedroom homes.
Birth Rates in the United States
Falling birth rates reduce future demand for family-sized homes, while rising rates predict increased housing needs. Changes in household composition also drive demand for different property types.
Key insight: America’s “secret weapon”—immigration—has kept property values stable, but declining birth rates among all groups (including immigrants) point to a longer-term demographic shift.
Data by State
Drill into state-level demographics, housing values, and tax data. Select a state to explore.
Projected Home Price Based on Demographic Trends
$477,854
State Demographics
Different age groups have different housing needs. Younger populations drive demand for rentals and starter homes; older populations fuel retirement communities. Millennials have recently reached peak family-formation age, dramatically increasing starter-home demand—especially in affordable Southern states.
The population pyramid shape predicts future trends: a large youth cohort signals future demand, while a top-heavy pyramid (common in the Northeast) suggests an aging population and potential out-migration to lower-cost states like Texas and Florida.
Property Values
High cost-of-living states generally have higher incomes that correlate with housing prices. Post-COVID, the housing market is increasingly viewed as an investment asset rather than simply a living expense.
Property Characteristics
Bedroom count reflects household size. Larger homes are more likely owned than rented, as families seek space and equity. Meanwhile, declining marriage rates mean more young adults are renting, driving up rental property values and income potential.
Death and Taxes
Tax burdens have increased post-COVID due to rising home values. Real estate taxes are tied to the housing market, and demographic trends help predict the future trajectory of this expense.